2月份中国贸易顺差从1月份的195亿USD收窄至86亿USD。中国的出口同比增长幅度从1月份的26.6%，大幅降至6.5%，而因为大宗产品价格暴涨，进口同比增幅为35.1%（1月份为27.5%）。
China's trade surplus narrowed to $8.6bn in February from $19.5bn in January. The countrys export growth plunged1 to 6.5% YoY from 26.6% in January, while imports grew 35.1% YoY as commodity prices surged.
大家预计到了2008年中国出口增长将放缓，但大家觉得，2月份中国出口增长之所以大幅降低，非常大程度上是受两个主要一次性原因的驱动：
We have anticipated a slowdown in Chinas export growth in 2008, but believe the severity of the slump2 in February was largely driven by two major one-off factors:
1. 2007年2月份中国出口同比增长52%，缘由是外面广泛预期中国将削减增值税出口退税，中国出口商争相赶在此前出口。这事实上为计算2008年2月份出口增幅设定了一个较高的基数。
1. Export growth surged by 52% YoY in February 2007 as Chinese exporters rushed to beat widely anticipated cutes to VAT3 rebates4. This in effect created a high base, from which the February 2008 growth rate was calculated.
2. 今年头几个月的冬天暴雪致使大面积供电及交通运输中断，影响到了生产和出口水平。
2. Severe winter storms in opening months of the year have led to widespread power and transportation disruptions, which affected5 production and export levels.
大家预计3月份的出口数据或有所反弹，但大家仍预计，因为经合组织成员经济体的放缓（它们占中国出口的三分之二），今年中国出口增长的放缓程度将更为温和。
We expect the export figures to rebound6 in March, but continue to anticipate a more moderate slowdown in export growth over the course of the year in response to the slowdown in the OECD economies .
尽管新兴市场对中国出口的需要仍然强劲，但大家觉得，这没办法完全抵消发达市场需要降低的影响。
While the demand for Chinese exports from emerging markets remains7 buoyant, we do not believe this will fully8 offset9 the moderation in developed markets.
中国出口范围的放缓，将成为2008年中国经济增长的重点风险之一。2007年中国出口总额占总体经济的36%，而贸易顺差约占中国国内生产总值增长的五分之一。
A slowdown in Chinas export sector10 constitutes one of the key risks to economic growth in 2008. Total exports accounted for 36% of the overall economy in 2007, while the trade surplus accounts for about a fifth of Chinas GDP growth.
同时，不断暴涨的大宗产品价格持续推高进口额2月份进口增速连续第5个月快于出口增速。除此之外，中国2月份的生产者价格指数较上年同期增长6.6%为2004年12月份以来的最快增速。这第三反映出一系列大宗产品和基本生产资料的本钱重压不断上升。
Meanwhile, soaring commodity prices continue to boost the value of imports - February marks the fifth month in a row that imports have grown faster than exports. Separately, Chinas producer prices gained 6.6% in February from a year earlier - the fastest rate since December 2004. This again reflects rising cosplayt pressures for a range of commodities and basic inputs11.
中国日益扩大的贸易顺差一直是流动性过剩的重要原因。不过，2008年中国贸易顺差的增长料或有所缓和这不止是受国外需要走软的影响，还受人民币不断升值的影响。人民币不断升值致使出口价格上涨，但使得中国的国外购买力增强。这一趋势或有利于中国抑制流动性过剩的努力。
Chinas widening trade surplus has been a major source of excess liquidity12. However, growth in the trade surplus is expected to ease in 2008 - impacted not only by weaker overseas demand, but also by the effect of a strengthening yuan, which makes exports more expensive but gives China more buying power abroad. This trend will be beneficial to Chinas efforts to curb13 excess liquidity.
